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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.