Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.